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Republic Insurance PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

9,803.33

increased by 7,052.97

1 Week

6,276.85

increased by 3,526.49

1 Month

3,405.71

increased by 655.35

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Republic Insurance PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 29, 2009 to Oct 19, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8759
αARCH0.2401
βGARCH0.7599
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-4.6635
γ24.9268
γ30.4410
γ49.9385
γ5-16.9709
γ613.9155
γ7-18.5453
γ814.9691
γ9-6.6263

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8759
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2401
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7599
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-4.6635
γ24.9268
γ30.4410
γ49.9385
γ5-16.9709
γ613.9155
γ7-18.5453
γ814.9691
γ9-6.6263

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days