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Radiant Cash Management Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

8,799.22

increased by 2,841.81

1 Week

6,652.40

increased by 694.99

1 Month

4,739.83

decreased by 1,217.58

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Radiant Cash Management ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2023 to Nov 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7503
4.99***
αARCH0.1863
7.26***
βGARCH0.7863
27.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0264
-0.28

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7503
4.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1863
7.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7863
27.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0264
-0.28

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days