Qualicorp SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
5,415.04
decreased by 91.96
1 Week
5,437.84
decreased by 69.16
1 Month
5,457.19
decreased by 49.81
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1100 trading days (~4.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1100 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9599 | 2.41** |
| αARCH | 0.0784 | 5.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9210 | 60.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0399 | 2.71*** |
0.999
Persistence1100d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9599 | 2.41** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 5.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9210 | 60.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0399 | 2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1100 days
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