V-Lab
Purple Finance Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,880.42
decreased by 881.40
1 Week
4,857.31
decreased by 1,904.51
1 Month
5,422.78
decreased by 1,339.04
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 17, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9513 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2676 | 6.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7174 | 15.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.6270 | -1.65* |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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