V-Lab
Prizma Pres Matbaacilik Yay Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
13,639.56
increased by 12,425.14
1 Week
3,378.76
increased by 2,164.34
1 Month
994.46
decreased by 219.96
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 21, 2012 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~152 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3868 | 3.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.2216 | 15.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7738 | 55.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1239 | -4.80*** |
| γ2 | 0.1929 | 4.56*** |
0.995
Persistence152d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3868 | 3.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2216 | 15.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7738 | 55.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1239 | -4.80*** |
| γ2 | 0.1929 | 4.56*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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