Pak-Qatar General Takaful Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
6,374.11
decreased by 2,094.32
1 Week
4,229.65
decreased by 4,238.78
1 Month
1,774.84
decreased by 6,693.59
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9100 | 3.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3277 | 2.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4772 | 2.05** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -45.2659 | -2.35** |
Persistence:
0.805
Half-life:
3 days
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