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Polar Capital Holdings plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

4,364.89

increased by 1,512.19

1 Week

3,328.76

increased by 476.06

1 Month

4,175.96

increased by 1,323.26

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polar Capital Holdings plc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3562
2.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1593
6.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8321
35.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.7323
0.78
γ2-2.1859
-1.36
γ33.3107
2.73***
γ4-5.4386
-3.08***
γ58.0205
2.73***
γ6-6.2874
-2.56**
γ71.9067
2.23**
γ8-0.2508
-0.52

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days