V-Lab
Polar Capital Holdings plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,364.89
increased by 1,512.19
1 Week
3,328.76
increased by 476.06
1 Month
4,175.96
increased by 1,323.26
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3562 | 2.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1593 | 6.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8321 | 35.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.7323 | 0.78 |
| γ2 | -2.1859 | -1.36 |
| γ3 | 3.3107 | 2.73*** |
| γ4 | -5.4386 | -3.08*** |
| γ5 | 8.0205 | 2.73*** |
| γ6 | -6.2874 | -2.56** |
| γ7 | 1.9067 | 2.23** |
| γ8 | -0.2508 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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