Pembangunan Graha Lestari Indah Tbk PT Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,604.93
increased by 4,670.78
1 Week
1,601.36
increased by 667.21
1 Month
1,024.91
increased by 90.76
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 27, 2011 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1623 trading days (~6.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1623 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4935 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.1489 | 5.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8506 | 27.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.4447 | 0.68 |
| γ2 | -4.0731 | -1.59 |
| γ3 | 4.4576 | 5.49*** |
| γ4 | -2.7242 | -4.66*** |
| γ5 | 0.0621 | 0.08 |
| γ6 | 3.1881 | 3.37*** |
| γ7 | -5.4899 | -3.80*** |
| γ8 | 6.6487 | 2.74*** |
1.000
Persistence1623d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4935 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1489 | 5.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8506 | 27.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.4447 | 0.68 |
| γ2 | -4.0731 | -1.59 |
| γ3 | 4.4576 | 5.49*** |
| γ4 | -2.7242 | -4.66*** |
| γ5 | 0.0621 | 0.08 |
| γ6 | 3.1881 | 3.37*** |
| γ7 | -5.4899 | -3.80*** |
| γ8 | 6.6487 | 2.74*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1623 days
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