V-Lab
Premier Foods plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
5,686.02
decreased by 92.17
1 Week
6,063.63
increased by 285.44
1 Month
4,886.97
decreased by 891.22
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 19, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9367 trading days (~37.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~9367 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2603 | 3.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.1111 | 15.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8888 | 122.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0239 | -5.03*** |
1.000
Persistence9367d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2603 | 3.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1111 | 15.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8888 | 122.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0239 | -5.03*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
9367 days
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