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Premier Foods plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

5,686.02

decreased by 92.17

1 Week

6,063.63

increased by 285.44

1 Month

4,886.97

decreased by 891.22

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Premier Foods plc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 19, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9367 trading days (~37.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~9367 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2603
3.31***
αARCH0.1111
15.32***
βGARCH0.8888
122.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0239
-5.03***

1.000

Persistence

9367d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2603
3.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1111
15.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8888
122.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0239
-5.03***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

9367 days