V-Lab
Partners Group Private Equity Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
16,109.76
decreased by 2,691.52
1 Week
18,362.24
decreased by 439.04
1 Month
17,037.25
decreased by 1,764.03
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:46 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8085 | 3.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1505 | 5.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7822 | 20.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1114 | -2.04** |
| γ2 | 0.6387 | 0.77 |
| γ3 | 1.3624 | 2.81*** |
| γ4 | -1.4980 | -4.28*** |
| γ5 | 1.1250 | 3.82*** |
| γ6 | -0.8122 | -3.50*** |
| γ7 | 0.5546 | 2.46** |
| γ8 | -0.4655 | -1.85* |
| γ9 | 0.2888 | 1.04 |
| γ10 | -0.1664 | -0.43 |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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