V-Lab
Partners Group Private Equity Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
10,482.51
decreased by 361.32
1 Week
11,632.79
increased by 788.96
1 Month
15,605.43
increased by 4,761.60
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8085 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1511 | 5.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7807 | 20.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1029 | -1.99** |
| γ2 | 0.6095 | 0.72 |
| γ3 | 1.4015 | 2.87*** |
| γ4 | -1.5286 | -4.35*** |
| γ5 | 1.1465 | 3.90*** |
| γ6 | -0.8302 | -3.57*** |
| γ7 | 0.5731 | 2.49** |
| γ8 | -0.4818 | -1.88* |
| γ9 | 0.3072 | 1.11 |
| γ10 | -0.2324 | -0.61 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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