Partners Group Private Equity Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
20,385.69
increased by 2,081.72
1 Week
16,996.61
decreased by 1,307.36
1 Month
19,717.27
increased by 1,413.30
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 08:17 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8078 | 3.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.1514 | 5.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7820 | 20.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1363 | -2.18** |
| γ2 | 0.7088 | 0.89 |
| γ3 | 1.2774 | 2.69*** |
| γ4 | -1.4302 | -4.15*** |
| γ5 | 1.0748 | 3.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.7705 | -3.36*** |
| γ7 | 0.5157 | 2.39** |
| γ8 | -0.4388 | -1.83* |
| γ9 | 0.2765 | 1.01 |
| γ10 | -0.1227 | -0.33 |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8078 | 3.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1514 | 5.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7820 | 20.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1363 | -2.18** |
| γ2 | 0.7088 | 0.89 |
| γ3 | 1.2774 | 2.69*** |
| γ4 | -1.4302 | -4.15*** |
| γ5 | 1.0748 | 3.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.7705 | -3.36*** |
| γ7 | 0.5157 | 2.39** |
| γ8 | -0.4388 | -1.83* |
| γ9 | 0.2765 | 1.01 |
| γ10 | -0.1227 | -0.33 |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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