V-Lab
Perion Network Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
4,063.80
increased by 692.11
1 Week
3,937.30
increased by 565.61
1 Month
5,064.44
increased by 1,692.75
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 53319 trading days (~211.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8034 | 0.32 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1936 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8064 | 0.05 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 2.0936 | 0.01 |
| γ2 | -6.7247 | -0.03 |
| γ3 | 8.0203 | 0.07 |
| γ4 | -4.3877 | -0.02 |
| γ5 | 1.0836 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 0.3236 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -1.0849 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
53319 days
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