V-Lab
Premier Energy PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
5,260.44
increased by 1,006.29
1 Week
3,949.75
decreased by 304.40
1 Month
4,618.95
increased by 364.80
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 27, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5505 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1916 | 3.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6816 | 8.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -3.8762 | -5.16*** |
| γ2 | 4.6311 | 3.64*** |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
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