One Stop Systems, Inc. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
7,444.76
increased by 2,433.28
1 Week
5,494.49
increased by 483.01
1 Month
4,153.11
decreased by 858.37
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2018 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~346573 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5066 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.2112 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7888 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.4453 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence346573d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5066 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2112 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7888 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.4453 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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