V-Lab
Orange County Bancorp Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,483.20
decreased by 33.44
1 Week
6,125.20
increased by 608.56
1 Month
6,014.81
increased by 498.17
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 5, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1841 | 6.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1605 | 6.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8015 | 22.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0715 | -1.70* |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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