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V-Lab

Orange County Bancorp Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

5,483.20

decreased by 33.44

1 Week

6,125.20

increased by 608.56

1 Month

6,014.81

increased by 498.17

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Orange County Bancorp Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 5, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1841
6.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1605
6.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8015
22.49***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0715
-1.70*

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days