Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
36,041.68
increased by 1,580.24
1 Week
36,772.31
increased by 2,310.87
1 Month
42,065.66
increased by 7,604.22
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 10:10 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 345 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~345 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2968 | 3.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.1326 | 14.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8654 | 90.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1407 | -5.93*** |
| γ2 | 0.2584 | 7.16*** |
| γ3 | -0.1567 | -4.81*** |
0.998
Persistence345d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2968 | 3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1326 | 14.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8654 | 90.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1407 | -5.93*** |
| γ2 | 0.2584 | 7.16*** |
| γ3 | -0.1567 | -4.81*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
345 days
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