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Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
51,960.88
decreased by 1,754.53
1 Week
51,644.35
decreased by 2,071.06
1 Month
56,065.60
increased by 2,350.19
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 09:28 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~115524 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0904 | 2.43** |
| αARCH | 0.1291 | 0.39 |
| βGARCH | 0.8709 | 2.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence115524d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0904 | 2.43** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1291 | 0.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8709 | 2.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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