V-Lab
Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14,827,530,000,000,000,000.00
1 Week
15,884,442,500,000,000,000.00
1 Month
4,716,806,986,500,000,000.00
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2001 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0785 | |
| αARCH | 0.3111 | |
| βGARCH | 0.6889 |
| γ1 | -10.7201 | |
| γ2 | 6.8268 | |
| γ3 | 10.5025 | |
| γ4 | -15.3490 | |
| γ5 | 5.9468 | |
| γ6 | 19.8486 | |
| γ7 | -1.5456 | |
| γ8 | -30.6429 | |
| γ9 | 49.8015 | |
| γ10 | -35.8002 |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0785 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3111 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6889 |
| γ1 | -10.7201 | |
| γ2 | 6.8268 | |
| γ3 | 10.5025 | |
| γ4 | -15.3490 | |
| γ5 | 5.9468 | |
| γ6 | 19.8486 | |
| γ7 | -1.5456 | |
| γ8 | -30.6429 | |
| γ9 | 49.8015 | |
| γ10 | -35.8002 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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