National Polymer Industries Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 25th, 2026
1 Day
20,984.87
increased by 9,509.22
1 Week
20,984.87
increased by 9,509.22
1 Month
7,038.37
decreased by 4,437.28
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 12, 2009 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 334 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~334 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2329 | 3.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.4635 | 18.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5345 | 23.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3011 | -0.29 |
| γ2 | -0.7421 | -0.54 |
| γ3 | 2.0070 | 2.76*** |
| γ4 | -6.8054 | -3.05*** |
| γ5 | 18.0011 | 3.06*** |
| γ6 | -22.8232 | -3.71*** |
| γ7 | 17.7439 | 5.70*** |
| γ8 | -17.3355 | -1.64 |
| γ9 | 31.4005 | 1.01 |
0.998
Persistence334d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2329 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4635 | 18.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5345 | 23.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3011 | -0.29 |
| γ2 | -0.7421 | -0.54 |
| γ3 | 2.0070 | 2.76*** |
| γ4 | -6.8054 | -3.05*** |
| γ5 | 18.0011 | 3.06*** |
| γ6 | -22.8232 | -3.71*** |
| γ7 | 17.7439 | 5.70*** |
| γ8 | -17.3355 | -1.64 |
| γ9 | 31.4005 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
334 days
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