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National Polymer Industries Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 25th, 2026

1 Day

20,984.87

increased by 9,509.22

1 Week

20,984.87

increased by 9,509.22

1 Month

7,038.37

decreased by 4,437.28

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Polymer Industries ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 12, 2009 to Oct 19, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 334 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~334 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.2329
3.27***
αARCH0.4635
18.70***
βGARCH0.5345
23.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.3011
-0.29
γ2-0.7421
-0.54
γ32.0070
2.76***
γ4-6.8054
-3.05***
γ518.0011
3.06***
γ6-22.8232
-3.71***
γ717.7439
5.70***
γ8-17.3355
-1.64
γ931.4005
1.01

0.998

Persistence

334d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2329
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4635
18.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5345
23.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.3011
-0.29
γ2-0.7421
-0.54
γ32.0070
2.76***
γ4-6.8054
-3.05***
γ518.0011
3.06***
γ6-22.8232
-3.71***
γ717.7439
5.70***
γ8-17.3355
-1.64
γ931.4005
1.01

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

334 days