V-Lab
Nederman Holding AB Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
3,882.90
decreased by 20.17
1 Week
4,162.21
increased by 259.14
1 Month
4,354.66
increased by 451.59
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~92 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6285 | 3.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0768 | 6.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9157 | 71.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1454 | -4.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.1973 | 3.80*** |
| γ3 | -0.1125 | -2.51** |
0.993
Persistence92d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6285 | 3.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0768 | 6.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9157 | 71.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1454 | -4.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.1973 | 3.80*** |
| γ3 | -0.1125 | -2.51** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
92 days
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