V-Lab
Nintec Systems Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
6,460.15
increased by 3,974.22
1 Week
3,677.38
increased by 1,191.45
1 Month
4,234.03
increased by 1,748.10
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8912 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2208 | 0.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7792 | 0.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2971 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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