Nilorngruppen Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
8,454.54
increased by 5,240.58
1 Week
4,485.72
increased by 1,271.76
1 Month
3,238.92
increased by 24.96
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 64 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7999 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1545 | 11.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8347 | 60.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0366 | -2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
Other Nilorngruppen Ab Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities