Nilorngruppen Ab ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
9,058.01
1 Week
5,137.40
1 Month
3,872.79
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1525 | 9.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8400 | 225.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0007 | -0.03 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 2.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 711.16*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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