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Nelly Group AB Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

6,416.55

increased by 1,754.46

1 Week

4,931.65

increased by 269.56

1 Month

4,274.55

decreased by 387.54

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 02:00 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nelly Group AB ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2010 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1134 trading days (~4.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1134 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0579
4.33***
αARCH0.1382
14.54***
βGARCH0.8612
89.98***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0090
-1.15

0.999

Persistence

1134d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0579
4.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1382
14.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8612
89.98***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0090
-1.15

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1134 days