V-Lab
NBS Bank Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
34,382.99
increased by 19,673.59
1 Week
15,213.26
increased by 503.86
1 Month
7,463.53
decreased by 7,245.87
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 16, 2012 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2318 trading days (~9.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2318 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 29.6200 | 2.09** |
| αARCH | 0.9722 | 29.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0275 | 0.84 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.3177 | -0.80 |
| γ2 | 5.5801 | 1.29 |
| γ3 | -8.8492 | -3.51*** |
| γ4 | 10.2250 | 3.11*** |
| γ5 | -9.4882 | -2.86*** |
| γ6 | 9.8017 | 3.52*** |
| γ7 | -7.5566 | -2.30** |
| γ8 | 2.3510 | 0.54 |
| γ9 | -0.9736 | -0.21 |
| γ10 | 12.6069 | 2.92*** |
1.000
Persistence2318d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 29.6200 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9722 | 29.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0275 | 0.84 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.3177 | -0.80 |
| γ2 | 5.5801 | 1.29 |
| γ3 | -8.8492 | -3.51*** |
| γ4 | 10.2250 | 3.11*** |
| γ5 | -9.4882 | -2.86*** |
| γ6 | 9.8017 | 3.52*** |
| γ7 | -7.5566 | -2.30** |
| γ8 | 2.3510 | 0.54 |
| γ9 | -0.9736 | -0.21 |
| γ10 | 12.6069 | 2.92*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2318 days
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