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NBS Bank Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

34,382.99

increased by 19,673.59

1 Week

15,213.26

increased by 503.86

1 Month

7,463.53

decreased by 7,245.87

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/28/2024

to

09/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NBS Bank Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 16, 2012 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2318 trading days (~9.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2318 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst29.6200
2.09**
αARCH0.9722
29.64***
βGARCH0.0275
0.84
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.3177
-0.80
γ25.5801
1.29
γ3-8.8492
-3.51***
γ410.2250
3.11***
γ5-9.4882
-2.86***
γ69.8017
3.52***
γ7-7.5566
-2.30**
γ82.3510
0.54
γ9-0.9736
-0.21
γ1012.6069
2.92***

1.000

Persistence

2318d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.6200
2.09**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.9722
29.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0275
0.84
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.3177
-0.80
γ25.5801
1.29
γ3-8.8492
-3.51***
γ410.2250
3.11***
γ5-9.4882
-2.86***
γ69.8017
3.52***
γ7-7.5566
-2.30**
γ82.3510
0.54
γ9-0.9736
-0.21
γ1012.6069
2.92***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2318 days