V-Lab
Msafe Equipments Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,945.94
increased by 684.06
1 Week
2,521.21
increased by 259.33
1 Month
5,183.15
increased by 2,921.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8028 | 8.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2509 | 4.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7352 | 13.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -19.4620 | -1.60 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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