V-Lab
Matahari Putra Prima Tbk Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.76
decreased by 3.00
1 Week
29.42
increased by 3.66
1 Month
36.24
increased by 10.48
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7026 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1335 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8665 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0065 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.6820 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -1.7766 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 2.0594 | 0.02 |
| γ5 | -2.4740 | -0.13 |
| γ6 | 3.2410 | 0.01 |
| γ7 | -3.0547 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 2.1203 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | -0.7637 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | 0.0413 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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