Mepet Metro Petrol ve Tesisleri Sanayi Ticaret AS Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
5,780.09
increased by 1,341.07
1 Week
4,520.59
increased by 81.57
1 Month
5,080.88
increased by 641.86
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:53 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2012 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.8284 | 7.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.1940 | 12.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7838 | 46.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0201 | 4.72*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8284 | 7.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1940 | 12.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7838 | 46.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0201 | 4.72*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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