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Mivtach Shamir Hds Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026

1 Day

5,866.44

increased by 3,283.50

1 Week

3,434.60

increased by 851.66

1 Month

3,612.23

increased by 1,029.29

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mivtach Shamir Hds ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 24, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2757
3.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1330
7.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8571
45.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0392
4.85***
γ2-0.0824
-5.40***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days