V-Lab
Mivtach Shamir Hds Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
5,866.44
increased by 3,283.50
1 Week
3,434.60
increased by 851.66
1 Month
3,612.23
increased by 1,029.29
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 24, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2757 | 3.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1330 | 7.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8571 | 45.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0392 | 4.85*** |
| γ2 | -0.0824 | -5.40*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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