MIC Electronics Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
5,495.46
increased by 151.36
1 Week
5,755.56
increased by 411.46
1 Month
5,516.40
increased by 172.30
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~77016 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9964 | 1.98** |
| αARCH | 0.1309 | 0.42 |
| βGARCH | 0.8691 | 2.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0163 | 0.22 |
1.000
Persistence77016d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9964 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1309 | 0.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8691 | 2.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0163 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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