V-Lab
Mezza Qstp LLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
7,312.70
increased by 2,766.03
1 Week
4,955.66
increased by 408.99
1 Month
4,400.76
decreased by 145.91
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2023 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3416 | 9.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1176 | 3.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7793 | 11.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2716 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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