V-Lab
Medicamen Biotech Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,520.36
decreased by 1,434.04
1 Week
5,380.80
decreased by 573.60
1 Month
5,822.92
decreased by 131.48
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 43 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2434 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3116 | 5.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6724 | 12.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.4145 | 0.55 |
| γ2 | -2.7067 | -2.56** |
| γ3 | 4.1567 | 6.84*** |
| γ4 | -1.4058 | -2.96*** |
| γ5 | -2.1936 | -2.77*** |
| γ6 | 3.6205 | 2.90*** |
| γ7 | -2.7978 | -2.60*** |
| γ8 | 1.6727 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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