V-Lab
Vietnam BDC Construction Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
9,214.63
increased by 8,225.06
1 Week
2,860.98
increased by 1,871.41
1 Month
2,702.12
increased by 1,712.55
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7133 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2538 | 8.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7316 | 29.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2150 | -0.18 |
| γ2 | 0.9284 | 0.57 |
| γ3 | -2.0033 | -1.71* |
| γ4 | 3.4549 | 3.03*** |
| γ5 | -5.1469 | -5.79*** |
| γ6 | 3.5268 | 3.81*** |
| γ7 | 3.2878 | 2.52** |
| γ8 | -12.2072 | -8.74*** |
| γ9 | 18.4223 | 12.37*** |
| γ10 | -15.8048 | -9.19*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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