V-Lab
Majestic Auto Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
3,917.70
decreased by 262.72
1 Week
4,426.05
increased by 245.63
1 Month
13,933.74
increased by 9,753.32
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1547 trading days (~6.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5744 | 1.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1863 | 5.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8133 | 25.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -3.2095 | -0.43 |
| γ2 | 11.2330 | 1.15 |
| γ3 | -17.7850 | -3.13*** |
| γ4 | 18.6929 | 3.43*** |
| γ5 | -13.9680 | -3.63*** |
| γ6 | 6.5003 | 3.97*** |
| γ7 | -2.1697 | -4.81*** |
| γ8 | 1.0621 | 3.49*** |
| γ9 | -0.4865 | -1.73* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1547 days
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