V-Lab
Manomay TEX India Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
596.50
decreased by 161.42
1 Week
576.51
decreased by 181.41
1 Month
5,963.35
increased by 5,205.43
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5182 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2753 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6808 | 15.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8301 | -0.32 |
| γ2 | 1.3953 | 0.32 |
| γ3 | -1.1982 | -0.34 |
| γ4 | 0.2131 | 0.05 |
| γ5 | 7.8186 | 1.34 |
| γ6 | -26.5746 | -3.85*** |
| γ7 | 35.2383 | 6.40*** |
| γ8 | -20.1445 | -5.80*** |
| γ9 | 3.4511 | 0.87 |
| γ10 | -1.0510 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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