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Maan Aluminium Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

4,643.92

decreased by 725.66

1 Week

6,265.08

increased by 895.50

1 Month

5,284.30

decreased by 85.28

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Maan Aluminium Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 23, 2009 to Nov 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3000
αARCH0.2572
βGARCH0.7428
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ12.4933
γ2-5.3259
γ32.7303
γ4-0.3981
γ51.8490
γ6-2.0585
γ70.9131
γ8-0.2556
γ90.3840
γ10-0.4825

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2572
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7428
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ12.4933
γ2-5.3259
γ32.7303
γ4-0.3981
γ51.8490
γ6-2.0585
γ70.9131
γ8-0.2556
γ90.3840
γ10-0.4825

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days