Maan Aluminium Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
4,643.92
decreased by 725.66
1 Week
6,265.08
increased by 895.50
1 Month
5,284.30
decreased by 85.28
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2009 to Nov 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3000 | |
| αARCH | 0.2572 | |
| βGARCH | 0.7428 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.4933 | |
| γ2 | -5.3259 | |
| γ3 | 2.7303 | |
| γ4 | -0.3981 | |
| γ5 | 1.8490 | |
| γ6 | -2.0585 | |
| γ7 | 0.9131 | |
| γ8 | -0.2556 | |
| γ9 | 0.3840 | |
| γ10 | -0.4825 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2572 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7428 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.4933 | |
| γ2 | -5.3259 | |
| γ3 | 2.7303 | |
| γ4 | -0.3981 | |
| γ5 | 1.8490 | |
| γ6 | -2.0585 | |
| γ7 | 0.9131 | |
| γ8 | -0.2556 | |
| γ9 | 0.3840 | |
| γ10 | -0.4825 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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