V-Lab
Ldr Turizm A.S. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
13,745.04
increased by 3,425.28
1 Week
5,815.74
decreased by 4,504.02
1 Month
1,423.90
decreased by 8,895.86
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 4, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 141 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~141 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1322 | 6.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.2576 | 3.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7375 | 11.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2335 | -1.47 |
0.995
Persistence141d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1322 | 6.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2576 | 3.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7375 | 11.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2335 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
141 days
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