Libra Infusions Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 25th, 2026
1 Day
11,789.20
decreased by 1,213.51
1 Week
11,789.20
decreased by 1,213.51
1 Month
15,367.39
increased by 2,364.68
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 06:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 12, 2009 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 188 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~188 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7.5110 | 3.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.3556 | 6.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6407 | 12.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.0739 | -1.07 |
| γ2 | 11.0788 | 1.92* |
| γ3 | -19.0048 | -3.45*** |
| γ4 | 16.4540 | 4.07*** |
| γ5 | 0.5232 | 0.07 |
| γ6 | -16.5771 | -1.50 |
| γ7 | 22.4352 | 1.68* |
| γ8 | -34.8504 | -1.66* |
| γ9 | 52.8348 | 1.74* |
| γ10 | -44.6007 | -1.90* |
0.996
Persistence188d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.5110 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3556 | 6.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6407 | 12.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.0739 | -1.07 |
| γ2 | 11.0788 | 1.92* |
| γ3 | -19.0048 | -3.45*** |
| γ4 | 16.4540 | 4.07*** |
| γ5 | 0.5232 | 0.07 |
| γ6 | -16.5771 | -1.50 |
| γ7 | 22.4352 | 1.68* |
| γ8 | -34.8504 | -1.66* |
| γ9 | 52.8348 | 1.74* |
| γ10 | -44.6007 | -1.90* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
188 days
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