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Libra Infusions Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 25th, 2026

1 Day

11,789.20

decreased by 1,213.51

1 Week

11,789.20

decreased by 1,213.51

1 Month

15,367.39

increased by 2,364.68

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 06:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Libra Infusions ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 12, 2009 to Oct 19, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 188 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~188 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst7.5110
3.96***
αARCH0.3556
6.85***
βGARCH0.6407
12.99***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-3.0739
-1.07
γ211.0788
1.92*
γ3-19.0048
-3.45***
γ416.4540
4.07***
γ50.5232
0.07
γ6-16.5771
-1.50
γ722.4352
1.68*
γ8-34.8504
-1.66*
γ952.8348
1.74*
γ10-44.6007
-1.90*

0.996

Persistence

188d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.5110
3.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3556
6.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6407
12.99***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-3.0739
-1.07
γ211.0788
1.92*
γ3-19.0048
-3.45***
γ416.4540
4.07***
γ50.5232
0.07
γ6-16.5771
-1.50
γ722.4352
1.68*
γ8-34.8504
-1.66*
γ952.8348
1.74*
γ10-44.6007
-1.90*

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

188 days