V-Lab
Kyverna Therapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
3,692.64
increased by 326.95
1 Week
3,257.01
decreased by 108.68
1 Month
3,574.91
increased by 209.22
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 8, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8040 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0971 | 3.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8736 | 26.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.2600 | -5.42*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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