V-Lab
Kyverna Therapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,112.16
increased by 410.47
1 Week
3,758.45
increased by 56.76
1 Month
4,217.41
increased by 515.72
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 8, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9083 | 4.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0974 | 4.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8831 | 31.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.0624 | -4.23*** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9083 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 4.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8831 | 31.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.0624 | -4.23*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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