V-Lab
Kerjaya Prospek Group Bhd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
4,399.18
decreased by 201.08
1 Week
4,842.20
increased by 241.94
1 Month
6,991.43
increased by 2,391.17
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5932 | 0.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2993 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7007 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.1185 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 1.4374 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.3987 | -0.02 |
| γ4 | -0.3949 | -0.04 |
| γ5 | 0.7519 | 0.22 |
| γ6 | 0.0087 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.6496 | -0.14 |
| γ8 | 0.5614 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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