V-Lab
Klabin SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
6,118.01
increased by 170.33
1 Week
5,572.61
decreased by 375.07
1 Month
4,077.00
decreased by 1,870.68
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0372 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1170 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8560 | 35.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.2555 | -2.99*** |
| γ2 | 0.4723 | 3.83*** |
| γ3 | -0.2748 | -3.94*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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