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Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

4,738.84

decreased by 255.13

1 Week

5,160.89

increased by 166.92

1 Month

6,499.09

increased by 1,505.12

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1347
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0729
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9271
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.6359
γ21.7365
γ30.0794
γ4-0.2286
γ50.1108
γ60.0377
γ70.0349
γ8-0.4898
γ90.0698
γ100.8193

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days