V-Lab
Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4,738.84
decreased by 255.13
1 Week
5,160.89
increased by 166.92
1 Month
6,499.09
increased by 1,505.12
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1347 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0729 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9271 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.6359 | |
| γ2 | 1.7365 | |
| γ3 | 0.0794 | |
| γ4 | -0.2286 | |
| γ5 | 0.1108 | |
| γ6 | 0.0377 | |
| γ7 | 0.0349 | |
| γ8 | -0.4898 | |
| γ9 | 0.0698 | |
| γ10 | 0.8193 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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