V-Lab
Kaplamin Ambalaj Sanayi Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
14,992.81
increased by 12,656.38
1 Week
4,173.95
increased by 1,837.52
1 Month
1,492.06
decreased by 844.37
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 4359 trading days (~17.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~4359 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5491 | 2.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.2399 | 27.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7600 | 86.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0270 | 1.09 |
| γ2 | -0.0170 | -0.60 |
| γ3 | -0.0572 | -4.12*** |
1.000
Persistence4359d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5491 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2399 | 27.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7600 | 86.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0270 | 1.09 |
| γ2 | -0.0170 | -0.60 |
| γ3 | -0.0572 | -4.12*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4359 days
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