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Kaplamin Ambalaj Sanayi Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

14,992.81

increased by 12,656.38

1 Week

4,173.95

increased by 1,837.52

1 Month

1,492.06

decreased by 844.37

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Kaplamin Ambalaj Sanayi ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 4359 trading days (~17.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~4359 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5491
2.90***
αARCH0.2399
27.37***
βGARCH0.7600
86.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0270
1.09
γ2-0.0170
-0.60
γ3-0.0572
-4.12***

1.000

Persistence

4359d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5491
2.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2399
27.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7600
86.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0270
1.09
γ2-0.0170
-0.60
γ3-0.0572
-4.12***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

4359 days