Kalind Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
15,602.07
increased by 6,991.13
1 Week
9,372.64
increased by 761.70
1 Month
5,312.87
decreased by 3,298.07
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 03:51 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 22, 2012 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 59 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4159 | 3.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.3948 | 5.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5936 | 8.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -14.9158 | -2.48** |
| γ2 | 19.4479 | 2.59*** |
| γ3 | -5.3061 | -1.20 |
| γ4 | 3.9744 | 0.82 |
| γ5 | -7.6903 | -1.86* |
| γ6 | 5.9263 | 1.46 |
| γ7 | -4.1338 | -0.92 |
| γ8 | 8.3469 | 1.52 |
| γ9 | -36.6319 | -3.02*** |
| γ10 | 98.2419 | 4.57*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4159 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3948 | 5.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5936 | 8.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -14.9158 | -2.48** |
| γ2 | 19.4479 | 2.59*** |
| γ3 | -5.3061 | -1.20 |
| γ4 | 3.9744 | 0.82 |
| γ5 | -7.6903 | -1.86* |
| γ6 | 5.9263 | 1.46 |
| γ7 | -4.1338 | -0.92 |
| γ8 | 8.3469 | 1.52 |
| γ9 | -36.6319 | -3.02*** |
| γ10 | 98.2419 | 4.57*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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