V-Lab
JPMorgan European Growth & Income plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,338.25
decreased by 250.88
1 Week
4,771.44
increased by 182.31
1 Month
5,085.33
increased by 496.20
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 280 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~280 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9250 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0637 | 6.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9338 | 103.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0372 | -3.37*** |
0.998
Persistence280d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9250 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0637 | 6.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9338 | 103.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0372 | -3.37*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
280 days
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