JPMorgan European Growth & Income plc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
5,171.52
1 Week
5,320.87
1 Month
5,339.08
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 120% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0271 | 19.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9567 | 493.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0325 | 6.23*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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