V-Lab
Indo Thai Securities Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
9,515.10
increased by 3,512.28
1 Week
6,423.18
increased by 420.36
1 Month
2,193.88
decreased by 3,808.94
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 576 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8514 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3413 | 8.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6575 | 16.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.3389 | 1.59 |
| γ2 | -4.8537 | -2.29** |
| γ3 | 9.2040 | 2.79*** |
| γ4 | -19.2193 | -3.65*** |
| γ5 | 31.8885 | 4.32*** |
| γ6 | -28.2843 | -4.77*** |
| γ7 | 12.1596 | 5.93*** |
| γ8 | -3.3509 | -4.11*** |
| γ9 | 0.4788 | 0.54 |
| γ10 | 2.5968 | 1.53 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
576 days
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