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Indo Thai Securities Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

9,515.10

increased by 3,512.28

1 Week

6,423.18

increased by 420.36

1 Month

2,193.88

decreased by 3,808.94

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Indo Thai Securities Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 576 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8514
3.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3413
8.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6575
16.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.3389
1.59
γ2-4.8537
-2.29**
γ39.2040
2.79***
γ4-19.2193
-3.65***
γ531.8885
4.32***
γ6-28.2843
-4.77***
γ712.1596
5.93***
γ8-3.3509
-4.11***
γ90.4788
0.54
γ102.5968
1.53

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

576 days