V-Lab
IPSOS Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
4,945.87
decreased by 243.13
1 Week
5,216.86
increased by 27.86
1 Month
5,695.73
increased by 506.73
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 58 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7940 | 8.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0690 | 10.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9192 | 116.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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