Innovision Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
8,221.42
increased by 160.08
1 Week
7,112.56
decreased by 948.78
1 Month
4,990.24
decreased by 3,071.10
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 04:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7397 | 6.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.1278 | 1.59 |
| βGARCH | 0.6886 | 3.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7287 | -0.23 |
0.816
Persistence3d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7397 | 6.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1278 | 1.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6886 | 3.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7287 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.816
Half-life:
3 days
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