Intl Conveyors Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
9,668.90
increased by 291.68
1 Week
8,652.25
decreased by 724.97
1 Month
4,881.19
decreased by 4,496.03
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2009 to Nov 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 16906 trading days (~67.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~16906 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0118 | 0.78 |
| αARCH | 0.1604 | 0.12 |
| βGARCH | 0.8396 | 0.65 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.1506 | 0.06 |
| γ2 | -1.7084 | -0.06 |
| γ3 | -4.8101 | -0.14 |
| γ4 | 13.9387 | 0.22 |
| γ5 | -11.5813 | -0.19 |
| γ6 | 1.3377 | 0.05 |
| γ7 | 0.3652 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | 4.5933 | 0.23 |
| γ9 | -4.2829 | -0.13 |
| γ10 | 1.5012 | 0.05 |
1.000
Persistence16906d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0118 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1604 | 0.12 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8396 | 0.65 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.1506 | 0.06 |
| γ2 | -1.7084 | -0.06 |
| γ3 | -4.8101 | -0.14 |
| γ4 | 13.9387 | 0.22 |
| γ5 | -11.5813 | -0.19 |
| γ6 | 1.3377 | 0.05 |
| γ7 | 0.3652 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | 4.5933 | 0.23 |
| γ9 | -4.2829 | -0.13 |
| γ10 | 1.5012 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
16906 days
Other Intl Conveyors Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities