How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	1.4036	3.89***
αARCH	0.1656	16.18***
βGARCH	0.8335	82.26***

γ₁	-0.1416	-3.42***
γ₂	0.3219	4.41***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	1.4036	3.89***
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1656	16.18***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8335	82.26***

γ₁	-0.1416	-3.42***
γ₂	0.3219	4.41***

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Halcyon Technology PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Halcyon Technology PLC Analyses