V-Lab
Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11,543.42
decreased by 2,048.07
1 Week
14,280.87
increased by 689.38
1 Month
12,672.70
decreased by 918.79
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9915 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1454 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8307 | 30.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3689 | -6.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.4819 | 5.35*** |
| γ3 | -0.1019 | -1.62 |
| γ4 | 0.0038 | 0.07 |
| γ5 | -0.0507 | -0.65 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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