V-Lab
Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
6,695.32
decreased by 116.18
1 Week
7,754.56
increased by 943.06
1 Month
11,462.63
increased by 4,651.13
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9790 | 2.25** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1475 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8273 | 30.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3705 | -6.51*** |
| γ2 | 0.4841 | 5.43*** |
| γ3 | -0.1051 | -1.69* |
| γ4 | 0.0147 | 0.29 |
| γ5 | -0.0873 | -1.25 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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