Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
13,034.15
decreased by 1,277.90
1 Week
12,377.09
decreased by 1,934.96
1 Month
10,636.26
decreased by 3,675.79
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9804 | 2.22** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1473 | 4.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8281 | 30.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3729 | -6.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.4863 | 5.36*** |
| γ3 | -0.1038 | -1.64 |
| γ4 | 0.0118 | 0.22 |
| γ5 | -0.0765 | -1.07 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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