V-Lab
Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC/The ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
13,066.84
1 Week
12,286.48
1 Month
13,850.99
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 6188 trading days (~24.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 194% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.1262 | 11.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7515 | 48.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.2444 | 10.04*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.2401 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1220 | 2.79*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8780 | 20.50*** |
1.000
Persistence6188d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1262 | 11.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7515 | 48.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2444 | 10.04*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.2401 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1220 | 2.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8780 | 20.50*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
6188 days
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