Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC/The ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
13,058.70
1 Week
12,735.16
1 Month
10,997.96
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 4041 trading days (~16.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1286 | 0.90 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7549 | 23.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2327 | 1.03 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.0455 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1130 | 4.15*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8870 | 7.24*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4041 days
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