V-Lab
Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC/The ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
8,118.35
1 Week
8,882.61
1 Month
11,841.02
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3518 trading days (~14.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1292 | 0.91 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7558 | 24.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2296 | 1.02 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.2618 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1096 | 4.13*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8904 | 7.70*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3518 days
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