V-Lab
Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC/The ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11,858.28
1 Week
14,252.69
1 Month
12,809.06
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5776 trading days (~22.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1267 | 0.88 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7519 | 23.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2426 | 1.08 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.0868 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1197 | 4.11*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8803 | 6.45*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5776 days
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