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Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC/The ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

13,058.70

decreased by 1,345.35

1 Week

12,735.16

decreased by 1,668.89

1 Month

10,997.96

decreased by 3,406.09

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Henderson Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC/The ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 4041 trading days (~16.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1286
0.90
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7549
23.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2327
1.03
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.0455
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1130
4.15***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8870
7.24***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

4041 days